Afghanistan Food Security Forecast: 2026 Wheat Crop Expected to Significantly Improve Food Access Nationwide (February - September 2026)

Afghanistan Food Security Forecast: 2026 Wheat Crop Expected to Significantly Improve Food Access Nationwide (February - September 2026)

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Key Messages

Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in Faryab, Ghor, and Daykundi provinces through April 2026, where poor households are completely market reliant with severely limited income and weak purchasing power. The continued influx of returnees has intensified labor competition and increased market demand, increasing food prices. Households are expected to face large food consumption deficits. In an effort to access market foods, poor households will likely engage in negative coping strategies, including distress asset sales, high-interest borrowing, and begging.

In May, the likely average wheat harvest is expected to improve household food and income access countrywide, with widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) most likely. Poor households in Faryab, Ghor, and Daykundi provinces face a slow recovery, with accumulated debt, eroded assets, and below-average purchasing power expected to drive food consumption deficits. In other areas facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3), the harvest starts later, and households will continue to face difficulty accessing food, as income will be insufficient for households to purchase market foods. Households with access to land or stable income sources are likely to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

See Also: https://gfmdhaka.com/

While improvements in food security are expected, the rainfed belt – particularly Faryab, Daykundi, and Ghor provinces – remain areas of greatest concern. These provinces have been the most severely affected by the four-year drought, and households are likely depleting their assets to access food. These areas have also seen the highest influx of returnees, who increased labor supply in an already weak labor market.

Food assistance needs in Afghanistan will be among the highest recorded since 2014, with an estimated 10.0–10.99 million people in need of humanitarian food assistance at the peak of the February to April 2026 lean season. Beginning in May 2026, needs are expected to decline moderately as harvests begin and market food stocks increase.

See Also: https://www.limraexpo.com/

The analysis in this report reflects information available as of February 26, 2026, and does not incorporate military developments involving Pakistan that began on February 27 or their broader regional implications. FEWS NET's analysis of the likely impacts on acute food insecurity will become available after March 31, 2026.

Source: Online/GFMM